**Phoenix Metro's Wealth Surge Fueled by Great Migration Slows After Pandemic Boom**
The Phoenix metro area witnessed an influx of wealth during the pandemic-driven Great Migration, with billions of dollars pouring into the region, according to a recent analysis by the *Business Journal*. Remote work policies, spurred by COVID-19, played a major role in this economic shift, though the trend has since decelerated as the pandemic subsided.
Maricopa County: A Major Beneficiary of the Wealth Boom
Maricopa County emerged as one of the biggest winners of this migration wave, gaining a staggering $1.8 billion in adjusted gross income (AGI) from new tax filers between 2021 and 2022. The *U.S. Census Bureau* and *Internal Revenue Service (IRS)* data revealed that the county added 96,229 tax returns, representing over $9.5 billion in total AGI during this period. However, nearly 89,247 tax filers, worth $7.7 billion in AGI, left the county, resulting in a net gain of 6,982 tax returns.
New arrivals had an average income of $98,820 per tax return, placing Maricopa County at No. 10 nationwide for net income gains from migration during this period. In comparison, Polk County, Florida, led the nation with a net addition of 12,108 tax returns.
Migration Trends Across Arizona Counties
Pinal County was the second-largest Arizona county to benefit from this wealth migration, with an influx of $635 million in AGI between 2021 and 2022. Other counties that experienced significant income gains include Pima, Yavapai, and Mohave, all of which saw substantial net increases during this period.
California Exodus Boosts Phoenix Metro
The much-publicized California exodus during the pandemic was a major driver of the influx into Maricopa County. The largest group of new out-of-state tax filers originated from Los Angeles County, adding 4,188 tax returns with an average AGI of $100,227. San Diego County followed with 2,519 new tax filers, boasting an AGI of $90,451, while Orange County contributed 2,103 tax filers with a higher average AGI of $149,490.
A Decade of Growth for Maricopa County
The wealth migration during the pandemic was part of a larger trend for Maricopa County, which has seen a steady rise in AGI for over a decade. Since 2011, the county has gained over $19 billion in adjusted gross income. Several other Arizona counties have also benefitted, including Pinal County ($3.5 billion), Yavapai County ($3 billion), Pima County ($2.8 billion), and Mohave County ($1.6 billion).
Slowdown in Migration Activity
While Maricopa County enjoyed a surge of wealth and population growth during the pandemic, the migration wave has started to slow down. A recent report from *Bank of America* indicated that fewer households moved between cities in 2024. Inter-city relocations dropped by 4% in the second quarter of 2024 compared to the same period in 2023.
Although Maricopa County was a migration hot spot during the height of the pandemic, newer data shows that Columbus, Ohio, saw the largest gains in the second quarter of 2024.
End of the Great Migration?
The conditions that fueled the Great Migration, such as historically low mortgage rates and widespread adoption of remote work, are fading. According to Jeffrey Roach, chief economist for *LPL Financial*, these factors have significantly diminished, contributing to the slowdown in migration activity.
In 2021, the U.S. Postal Service processed around 36 million address changes. That figure dropped to 28.3 million in 2023, signaling a deceleration in population movement. Many of the western U.S. states, including Arizona and Idaho, which saw rapid growth during the pandemic, are now experiencing slower population growth.
Conclusion
While the Great Migration brought an unprecedented surge of wealth to Phoenix and its surrounding counties, the pace of new arrivals has tapered off. The Phoenix metro area, especially Maricopa County, will continue to benefit from the economic gains made during the pandemic, but future growth may be more moderate as migration dynamics shift back to pre-pandemic patterns.
